Economy good here, expert says
Economists accustomed to dishing out worse news on top of bad news must envy Mark Snead when he talks about the Lawton area.
Snead, director of the Center for Applied Economic Research at Oklahoma State University, presented his 2009 economic forecast for Lawton Thursday, and there wasn’t a smidgen of gloom or dab of doom anywhere in sight.
“I’ve delivered a lot of mediocre news, a lot of bad news this year,” he said at a fundraiser for the Great Plains Technology Center Foundation. “Lawton is going to be fun tonight. Things are quite good here.”
“I don’t have a lot of bad news for you,” he said. “In fact, I don’t think I have any.”
Lawton’s economy has been growing for several years, and it should record modest growth this year and sizzle next year as the full effects of BRAC begin to be realized, he said.
The Lawton area gained 750 jobs last year, he said, just a bit short of what the center predicted early in 2008. Retail sales rose 4.9 percent, the home price index climbed 4.8 percent and temporary employment — what he called the “magic indicator” — was up sharply.
Growth will slow a bit this year, he said, but there will still be growth, unlike the nation as a whole.
And for 2010, there’s more good news.
“You’re looking for a surge in 2010 ... and it will be exciting to watch,” he said.
Snead is expecting Comanche County’s total employment (military and civilian) to surge 7.1 percent next year; civilian employment alone will jump 4 percent. The home price index — again bucking the national trend — should rise, though he doesn’t expect the double-digit increases seen in 2005-2006. The civilian job growth is expected to be concentrated in health services, financial services, accommodations and food service, government and retail trade.
Population to grow
And he expects population to grow, though not necessarily as much as employment. Some of those who finds new jobs here will live outside the county, and some of the jobs will be absorbed by the existing labor force. That will make the Lawton area one of the fastest growing areas of the state.
“For most of Oklahoma, that’s five years of growth,” he said.
The outlook isn’t so rosy for the rest of the state, though Snead thinks Oklahoma has a chance to do better than the nation. Historically, the state has continued to add jobs even during national recessions, except when energy prices have gone bust. While energy prices have plummeted since last year, they haven’t collapsed beyond their “natural level,” and the state continued to add jobs in the fourth quarter of 2008 and retail sales, and home prices continued to show growth.
SNEAD
S TEPHEN ROBERTSON/STAFF
Mark Snead, left, director of the Center for Applied Economic Research at Oklahoma State University, talks with Syed Ahmed, director of the Business Research Center at Cameron University, Thursday after Snead presented his forecast for the Lawton economy. In back is Chuck Wade, chairman of the Great Plains Technology Center Foundation, which sponsored Snead’s visit.